From the 2026 National Study

Voters in the Middle

Image, Ballot, and Message Testing
September 28th, 2026

Generic Ballot

Democrat

48%

Republican

43%

Other

Undecided

Full Question:

If the November 3rd general election for the U.S. House of Representatives were held today, which Party's candidate would you vote for?

	Democrat	Republican	Other	Undecided
Republican	1	94	1	3
Democrat	96	1	0	3
Ind/Other	51	21	10	18
Female	51	41	2	6
Male	46	45	3	6
18-34	69	13	8	10
35-44	59	33	3	4
45-54	43	46	3	8
55-64	38	52	2	8
65+	46	48	1	5
Conservative	9	85	2	4
Moderate	66	18	4	12
Liberal	94	3	2	2
White	44	47	3	7
Hispanic	55	39	2	4
Black	79	15	2	4
Other Race	54	34	3	9
HS	44	48	2	6
Some College	43	47	4	7
College	53	39	3	5
Grad+	63	28	2	7
4 of 4	49	44	1	6
3 of 4	39	50	4	8
2 of 4	40	47	3	11
1 of 4	53	37	7	3
0 of 4	59	32	3	6
South	47	46	2	5
West	49	41	5	6
Midwest	50	41	2	7
Northeast	48	39	3	10
Suburban	48	43	2	7
Urban	55	36	4	4
Rural	42	49	2	7

Inflation Policies

Biden/Democrat

47%

Trump/Republican

44%

Unsure

Full Question:

Which policies do you believe are more effective at keeping inflation from getting out of control and managing the economy?

Biden Administration/Democrat policies
Trump Administration/Republican policies
Unsure

	Biden/Democrat	Trump/Republican	Unsure
Republican	2	90	8
Democrat	88	6	6
Ind/Other	56	25	19
Female	50	41	10
Male	43	48	9
18-34	69	16	15
35-44	51	39	10
45-54	46	43	11
55-64	38	54	8
65+	43	49	8
Conservative	9	83	8
Moderate	64	21	15
Liberal	88	6	6
White	43	47	10
Hispanic	43	47	10
Black	73	22	6
Other Race	57	32	10
HS	40	52	7
Some College	44	45	11
College	52	38	10
Grad+	60	29	10
4 of 4	46	46	8
3 of 4	40	52	8
2 of 4	41	41	18
1 of 4	47	41	12
0 of 4	59	32	9
South	46	47	7
West	48	41	11
Midwest	48	41	11
Northeast	45	45	10
Suburban	47	44	10
Urban	53	38	8
Rural	40	50	10

Economic Preference

Biden/Democrat

50%

Trump/Republican

45%

Unsure

Full Question:

Would you rather have President Trump and congressional Republicans' economic policies, or Democrat and Biden-era economic policies?

Democrats and Biden-era policies
President Trump and congressional Republican policies
Unsure

	Biden/Democrat	Trump/Republican	Unsure
Republican	1	96	3
Democrat	94	3	3
Ind/Other	59	26	16
Female	53	42	6
Male	46	48	6
18-34	72	16	12
35-44	59	34	7
45-54	45	48	7
55-64	41	55	5
65+	47	50	3
Conservative	9	87	4
Moderate	69	21	10
Liberal	94	3	3
White	45	49	5
Hispanic	53	40	7
Black	78	16	7
Other Race	59	37	4
HS	44	50	6
Some College	45	49	6
College	55	40	5
Grad+	64	30	6
4 of 4	50	46	4
3 of 4	38	54	8
2 of 4	43	47	10
1 of 4	58	37	5
0 of 4	60	34	5
South	49	47	4
West	50	42	7
Midwest	51	43	6
Northeast	49	45	6
Suburban	50	44	6
Urban	57	38	5
Rural	43	52	5

Party on Issues

Democrat

47%

Republican

44%

Unsure

Full Question:

Which political Party is talking about policies you care about?

Democrat Party
Republican Party
Unsure

	Democrat	Republican	Unsure
Republican	1	96	3
Democrat	94	1	4
Ind/Other	46	23	31
Female	51	40	8
Male	42	48	10
18-34	62	14	24
35-44	58	33	9
45-54	44	46	9
55-64	37	54	9
65+	45	50	6
Conservative	8	87	5
Moderate	65	20	16
Liberal	91	2	7
White	43	48	9
Hispanic	54	37	8
Black	73	16	11
Other Race	50	33	17
HS	41	50	8
Some College	43	48	9
College	52	38	10
Grad+	60	29	11
4 of 4	47	46	7
3 of 4	38	51	10
2 of 4	39	47	14
1 of 4	52	36	12
0 of 4	56	32	12
South	44	47	9
West	48	42	11
Midwest	48	43	9
Northeast	50	41	9
Suburban	46	44	10
Urban	55	36	9
Rural	40	51	9

GOP Policies

Too Extreme

50%

Just About Right

33%

Not Cons. Enough

17%

Full Question:

What is your opinion of the policies being supported by Republicans?

Too extreme
Just about right
Not conservative enough

	Too Extreme	Just About Right	Not Cons. Enough
Republican	2	69	29
Democrat	91	2	6
Ind/Other	65	22	13
Female	53	34	13
Male	47	32	21
18-34	72	13	15
35-44	63	21	16
45-54	47	32	21
55-64	42	43	15
65+	45	39	17
Conservative	7	62	32
Moderate	74	19	7
Liberal	96	2	2
White	47	36	17
Hispanic	57	32	10
Black	63	13	23
Other Race	57	29	14
HS	40	38	22
Some College	46	37	16
College	58	28	13
Grad+	69	21	10
4 of 4	51	34	15
3 of 4	40	43	17
2 of 4	42	34	24
1 of 4	63	27	9
0 of 4	56	25	20
South	47	33	20
West	52	34	14
Midwest	52	33	14
Northeast	51	33	15
Suburban	51	32	17
Urban	56	31	13
Rural	43	36	21

Democrat Policies

Too Extreme

46%

Just about right

28%

Not Prog. Enough

26%

Full Question:

What is your opinion of the policies being supported by Democrats?

Too extreme
Just about right
Not progressive enough

	Too Extreme	Just about right	Not Prog. Enough
Republican	88	2	9
Democrat	4	56	41
Ind/Other	44	26	30
Female	42	31	28
Male	51	25	24
18-34	22	32	46
35-44	40	25	35
45-54	55	22	22
55-64	54	25	21
65+	48	32	21
Conservative	84	7	9
Moderate	31	48	21
Liberal	3	39	58
White	51	25	24
Hispanic	37	37	26
Black	25	38	37
Other Race	36	32	32
HS	49	26	24
Some College	48	26	26
College	45	28	26
Grad+	37	35	28
4 of 4	48	29	23
3 of 4	55	25	20
2 of 4	47	23	29
1 of 4	37	29	34
0 of 4	37	29	34
South	48	29	23
West	48	24	28
Midwest	44	29	27
Northeast	43	30	27
Suburban	47	28	25
Urban	39	30	31
Rural	52	25	22

Trump Approval

Approve

40%

Disapprove

55%

Unsure

Full Question:

Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump's job performance?

	Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
Republican	87	5	8
Democrat	2	97	1
Ind/Other	21	70	8
Female	38	57	5
Male	44	51	5
18-34	11	85	4
35-44	29	64	6
45-54	41	54	6
55-64	52	43	5
65+	46	49	5
Conservative	79	13	8
Moderate	18	77	5
Liberal	4	96	0
White	44	51	5
Hispanic	40	57	4
Black	16	82	2
Other Race	29	63	8
HS	47	48	4
Some College	44	51	5
College	35	59	6
Grad+	25	70	5
4 of 4	42	53	5
3 of 4	46	47	7
2 of 4	43	51	7
1 of 4	39	57	4
0 of 4	29	67	4
South	44	53	3
West	39	55	6
Midwest	36	56	7
Northeast	39	55	6
Suburban	41	55	5
Urban	34	62	4
Rural	47	46	6

Trump Affinity

Full Support

35%

Support Policies

10%

Don't Support

53%

Unsure

Full Question:

When thinking about President Donald Trump, which statement most aligns with your views?

I support him and his policies
I dislike him personally but support most of his policies
I dislike him personally and don't support most of his policies
Unsure

	Full Support	Support Policies	Don't Support	Unsure
Republican	79	16	2	3
Democrat	1	2	96	1
Ind/Other	14	13	67	5
Female	34	8	56	2
Male	36	12	49	3
18-34	10	4	84	2
35-44	24	12	60	5
45-54	35	12	50	3
55-64	44	11	41	4
65+	40	9	48	2
Conservative	71	15	11	3
Moderate	13	11	73	3
Liberal	2	0	97	1
White	38	10	49	2
Hispanic	29	8	60	3
Black	16	6	74	5
Other Race	25	12	60	3
HS	43	7	48	2
Some College	37	11	48	4
College	29	12	57	2
Grad+	19	13	66	2
4 of 4	37	9	51	3
3 of 4	42	13	41	3
2 of 4	33	12	50	5
1 of 4	28	10	58	4
0 of 4	25	7	67	1
South	38	8	51	3
West	30	12	54	4
Midwest	33	11	55	1
Northeast	34	11	52	3
Suburban	35	10	52	3
Urban	29	10	58	3
Rural	41	10	47	2

Methodology & Demographics

Fielded On:: September 27-28, 2026
Method:: Mobile Text Responses
Population & Sample Description:: 2248 Likely General Election Voters
Weighting:: Age, Gender, Race, and Education
MoE:: ±2.04%

Self-Reported Party

Republican	40%
Democrat	39%
Ind/Other	21%

Gender

Female	53%
Male	47%

Age

18-34	11%
35-44	13%
45-54	15%
55-64	20%
65+	41%

Ideology

Conservative	43%
Moderate	31%
Liberal	26%

Race

White	76%
Hispanic	10%
Black	9%
Other Race	5%

Education

HS	36%
Some College	27%
College	22%
Grad+	15%

Last 4 Generals

4 of 4	52%
3 of 4	15%
2 of 4	9%
1 of 4	6%
0 of 4	17%

Region

South	39%
West	23%
Midwest	20%
Northeast	17%

Household Income

<$50k	16%
$50-75k	17%
$75-100k	18%
$100-150k	34%
$150k+	14%

Community Type

Suburban	41%
Urban	30%
Rural	29%

For information, contact:

Ryan Munce

President

co/efficient

ryan@coefficient.org